MPL Malaysia · Season 18 · Leg 2
Road to playoffs
Eight teams. Top six qualify.
Top 6
Playoff qualification
Roster adjustments: off · Percentages use team records
Recorded snapshot · 22 Sep 2026. Results do not update automatically in this candidate. Forecasts are estimates; season tiebreak rules remain provisional.
Season rules awaiting confirmation
Series wins → game difference. Qualification labels depend on these provisional rules.
The race
League standings
Both legs counted · select a team to analyze
| Rank | Team | Series W–L | Leg 2 | Game Δ | Left | Top 6 estimate | vs W5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9–2 | 3–1 | +14 | 3 | >99.9% | +0.0pp | |
| 2 | 8–3 | 3–1 | +8 | 3 | >99.9% | -0.0pp | |
| 3 | 7–3 | 2–1 | +4 | 4 | >99.9% | +0.3pp | |
| 4 | 6–4 | 2–1 | +2 | 4 | >99.9% | +0.2pp | |
| 5 | 5–6 | 2–2 | -1 | 3 | 99.4% | +2.0pp | |
| 6 | 4–6 | 1–2 | -1 | 4 | 99.1% | +3.3pp | |
| 7 | 2–9 | 1–3 | -10 | 3 | 1.5% | -5.8pp | |
| 8 | 1–9 | 0–3 | -16 | 4 | <0.1% | -0.0pp |
Estimates use 5,000 simulated seasons. A very high forecast is distinct from a secure mathematical path. Movement compares with a reconstruction after the previous week.
Kelayakan playoff
How can 
AC reach the top 6?
Meet every condition in one row.
| Route | AC wins | Rivals lose | Scores | Chance | Finish* | Example |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced | 4+ / 4 |
| 2–0 / 2–1 | 0.01% | #6 |
+ = at least · *Example finish · Chance = model estimate
How to read
4+ / 6 means at least four wins from six remaining series. Rival counts mean losses. All conditions in a row must hold.
“Other series: ≥1 map” applies to every remaining series outside the required sweep wins. Unlisted rival results can vary.
Chance is the likelihood that all row conditions happen from the recorded cutoff. It uses the selected forecast model. Rows overlap; percentages do not add to 100%.
These quick routes are sufficient examples. All scenarios below covers every qualifying rival combination under the configured rules. Specific match scores are one example.
All scenarios
Choose exact wins. Meet both rivals’ conditions.
All outcomes checked
1 scenarios
| Below AC | Losses needed | Tie on wins | Chance | Example |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 FL +  RRQ |
| Below AC’s GD | 0.01% | #6 |
+ = at least · GD = maps won − lost · Chances overlap
Scenario rules
Select exactly this many remaining series wins. Both rivals must meet their loss totals. If tied on wins, compare each rival’s final GD with AC’s. More losses remove that tie condition.
Secure mode requires rivals strictly below AC. Include tiebreaks allows equal final scores; a cutoff tie does not guarantee qualification. Loss counts include matches against AC.
Chance is the likelihood of exactly the selected wins and both rivals finishing below the team (or tied in Include tiebreaks). It includes all matching score combinations, rather than only the example. Rows overlap.
Every group has a legal full completion. Groups overlap and their count is not a probability. All outcomes are checked under the configured scoring rules. Scores show one example; Try applies it to the simulator.
Detailed simulator · edit scores and compare percentages
What if?
Scenario lab · Kelayakan playoff
Test a result and compare the effect on every team. Combine several matches to explore the results needed for a top-six finish.
Applies to 4 pending series. Replaces this team's assumptions and keeps other scenario results.
Choose a result above to see percentage changes and qualification routes. With no assumptions, both columns match.
| Team | Recorded results | Your scenario | Change | Kelayakan · before → after | Wins to secure · before → after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| >99.9% | >99.9% | 0.0 pp | SecureSecure | Already secureAlready secure | |
| >99.9% | >99.9% | 0.0 pp | SecureSecure | Already secureAlready secure | |
| >99.9% | >99.9% | 0.0 pp | SecureSecure | Already secureAlready secure | |
| >99.9% | >99.9% | 0.0 pp | SecureSecure | Already secureAlready secure | |
| 99.4% | 99.4% | 0.0 pp | Still possibleStill possible | 1 more win1 more win | |
| 99.1% | 99.1% | 0.0 pp | Still possibleStill possible | 2 more wins2 more wins | |
| 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0 pp | Still possibleStill possible | Rivals or tiebreaks still matterRivals or tiebreaks still matter | |
| <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0 pp | Still possibleStill possible | Rivals or tiebreaks still matterRivals or tiebreaks still matter |
Percentages estimate top-six qualification; changes are percentage points against recorded results at the selected cutoff. Qualification and win guarantees use series-win bounds with adverse ties under the stated scoring assumption. A 99.9% estimate does not prove a secure berth. Small percentage changes may be simulation noise.
Team pathway
AC Esports
Top 6 estimate
<0.1%
Attainable rank bounds
#5–8
Path to a secure berth
Series wins alone cannot guarantee a berth in these bounds. Rival results or the eventual tiebreak resolution can still matter.
A possible route
At least 3 additional series wins are needed for any qualifying route. That is a possibility, not a guarantee.
Winning every remaining series still leaves a dependency on rivals or tiebreaks.
Rank bounds use series wins only: favorable ties for the best case, unfavorable ties for the worst. They are wider than forecasts using game difference.
Estimated final position
Next match: AC vs RRQ
Top-six outlook by result · click to test a score
Conditional estimates use the same current team strengths; sampling noise can obscure small scoreline differences.
Remaining opponents (4)
RRQ ToraW7 · 9 Oct, 20:15 MYT
Invictus GamingW7 · 11 Oct, 17:00 MYT
Team ReyW8 · 17 Oct, 17:00 MYT
Team VamosW8 · 18 Oct, 14:30 MYT
Rival watch
Teams closest to the bubble
Other teams whose forecasts are closest to 50%. Their results can change the race; use scenarios to test a dependency.
Fixture scenarios
The second leg
Set pending scores to see the effect on every team. Only complete BO3 results can be tested.
Week 511 Sept7/7 recorded
iG2–0TR11 Sept, 17:00 MYT · Leg 2
SRG2–0
BTRM11 Sept, 20:15 MYT · Leg 2
FL2–0AC12 Sept, 14:30 MYT · Leg 2
VMS0–2TR12 Sept, 17:00 MYT · Leg 2
SRG2–1RRQ12 Sept, 20:15 MYT · Leg 2
BTRM2–0AC13 Sept, 14:30 MYT · Leg 2
RRQ2–0FL13 Sept, 17:00 MYT · Leg 2
Week 618 Sept7/7 recorded
TR2–1FL18 Sept, 17:00 MYT · Leg 2
RRQ1–2VMS18 Sept, 20:15 MYT · Leg 2
VMS2–0BTRM19 Sept, 14:30 MYT · Leg 2
RRQ1–2iG19 Sept, 17:00 MYT · Leg 2
AC0–2SRG19 Sept, 20:15 MYT · Leg 2
BTRM2–1iG20 Sept, 14:30 MYT · Leg 2
SRG1–2TR20 Sept, 17:00 MYT · Leg 2
Week 78 Oct0/7 recorded
TRvsBTRM8 Oct, 17:00 MYT · Leg 2
SRGvsFL8 Oct, 20:15 MYT · Leg 2
VMSvsiG9 Oct, 17:00 MYT · Leg 2
ACvsRRQ9 Oct, 20:15 MYT · Leg 2
FLvsVMS11 Oct, 14:30 MYT · Leg 2
iGvsAC11 Oct, 17:00 MYT · Leg 2
TRvsRRQ11 Oct, 20:15 MYT · Leg 2
Week 816 Oct0/7 recorded
FLvsiG16 Oct, 17:00 MYT · Leg 2
VMSvsSRG16 Oct, 20:15 MYT · Leg 2
BTRMvsFL17 Oct, 14:30 MYT · Leg 2
ACvsTR17 Oct, 17:00 MYT · Leg 2
iGvsSRG17 Oct, 20:15 MYT · Leg 2
ACvsVMS18 Oct, 14:30 MYT · Leg 2
RRQvsBTRM18 Oct, 17:00 MYT · Leg 2
Asian Games break: 21 Sep–4 Oct. Week 7 includes Thursday 8 Oct; fixtures follow the official schedule.
Round report · recorded results
What changed in Week 6
Completed week · compared with W5
Largest estimated gain
Team Flash
Largest estimated drop
RRQ Tora
Changes include both recorded results and refitted team strengths. Small shifts may be simulation noise.
Next matches to analyze · Week 7
Ordered by the largest estimated change for any team between a 2–0 and 0–2 result. This is a sweep comparison; other scorelines and simulation noise can change the ranking.
Forecast method and assumptions
Recorded snapshot: 22 Sept, 11:16 MYT. This view uses a dated capture and does not automatically update. Missing scores remain pending.
Six teams qualify. Forecasts rank series wins, then game difference; unresolved ties share places. The detailed season tiebreak rules are unconfirmed. Qualification guarantees apply only under these scoring assumptions.
The strength model combines opponent-adjusted season map strength with the pair’s head-to-head map record. Direct meetings are excluded from the season prior, then blended back with an eight-map prior weight. BO3 probabilities assume independent games with fixed matchup strength. Scenario chances sum all matching fixture outcomes exactly under this model. The equal-strength baseline gives both teams a 50% map chance; it describes the fixture structure rather than predicting team ability.
Model season-strength-h2h-prior8-v2; seed 1806. Typical maximum 95% sampling margin is ±1.4 percentage points. This measures simulation noise, not model accuracy. The model has not yet been calibrated on historical seasons. Draft, roster, patch, and injury effects are not included.
Historical weeks are reconstructed from this capture's results, not live snapshots saved at that time. Only results at or before the selected week train its model; later corrections can change a reconstructed history. Scenario scores never train team strengths.